Though the U.S. Senate race in Massachusetts was not about LGBT issues, the victory of Scott Brown over Martha Coakley at least complicates the picture for some of the community’s key legislative goals. Is the repeal of “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” still on the table? Is ENDA possible?
Looking back at how we got here is pretty tempting, and plenty are engaged in just that this morning. The more important question, however, is how we move forward. Jonathan Chait, writing in The New Republic, cautions against panic and following the conventional wisdom of cable news pundits:
The difference between the parties is that Republicans ignore the establishment’s advice. After Obama’s election, conventional wisdom insisted that the GOP would have to move to the center. Instead the party moved further right. And whatever the policy merits, it has worked politically. If Republicans had cooperated more with Obama, it would have given him bipartisan accomplishments and made him even more popular.
The GOP’s ability to ignore establishment nostrums in the face of defeat is its great electoral strength. Democrats, by contrast, have a congenital tendency to panic. Abandoning health care reform after they’ve already paid whatever political cost that comes from voting for it in both houses would be suicide. Even if Coakley loses, the House could pass the Senate bill as is, avoiding the need to break a filibuster, and tinker with it in a reconciliation bill that can’t be filibustered. The only thing preventing the Democrats from following through would be sheer panic.
The difference between the parties is that Republicans ignore the establishment’s advice. After Obama’s election, conventional wisdom insisted that the GOP would have to move to the center. Instead the party moved further right. And whatever the policy merits, it has worked politically. If Republicans had cooperated more with Obama, it would have given him bipartisan accomplishments and made him even more popular.
The GOP’s ability to ignore establishment nostrums in the face of defeat is its great electoral strength. Democrats, by contrast, have a congenital tendency to panic.
Chait is talking specifically about health care reform, but many this morning are echoing his advice with regard to LGBT legislation. Earlier this week the Advocate’s Kerry Eleveld wrote in her weekly View from Washington column, “A Democratic loss in Coakley’s race will signal nothing short of a serious enthusiasm gap, not a backlash against social progressivism.”
So, will reigniting the enthusiasm of his base and ignoring conventional wisdom to tack rightward boost President Obama’s chances of enacting the progressive agenda he outlined in the 2008 campaign? Or should the White House seek compromises on hot button issues to draw votes in Congress and perhaps achieve partial victories?
Stay tuned.