Champagne corks are popping in the Golden State.  A federal judge in California has lifted a temporary stay of his landmark decision striking down Proposition 8, the 2008 ballot measure that put a halt to weddings.

Same-sex couples across the state are expected to begin lining up for wedding licenses again nearly two years after voters narrowly approved Prop 8.  Still, it’s unclear how long couples will be able to take advantage of the restored right to marry.  Prop 8 proponents who are appealing the Prop 8 decision are also likely to appeal today’s ruling on resuming marriages to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 9th Circuit.

A new CNN poll released yesterday found that for the first time a majority of Americans believe same-sex couples should have the right to legally marry.  Fifty-two percent said it should be legal, while 46 percent opposed marriage equality.

Nate Silver at Fivethirtyeight.com has been analyzing recent polling on the issue, and concludes that the rapid shift in opinion toward marriage equality likely means that ”’having the debate’ is helpful to the gay marriage cause.”

UPDATE:  Same-sex couples will have to wait until August 18 at 5pm to get married.  The judge’s order lifted the stay, but then he stayed today’s order until next Wednesday.  In the interim, Prop 8 proponents will appeal to the Ninth Circuit to issue its own stay.

A last-minute barrage of television ads designed to frighten the parents of school-aged children probably swayed half a million Californians to vote “yes” on Proposition 8, the statewide ballot initiative that ended legal marriage for same-sex couples.  That’s the key take away from a new analysis released today by David Fleischer of the LGBT mentoring project, which is part of the Los Angeles Gay and Lesbian Center.

Some polling in the 2008 campaign showed the outcome too close to call as Election Day neared, but a late surge of support for Prop 8 swamped “No on 8″ organizers who were trying to protect marriage equality in the state.  After the election, a few observers blamed African-American voters for the outcome, but Fleischer, writing in the Los Angeles Times today, said that community’s support for Prop 8 remained steady throughout the campaign:

True, a majority of African-Americans opposed same-sex marriage, but that was true at the beginning and at the end of the campaign; few changed their minds in the closing weeks.

The shift, it turns out, was greatest among parents with children under 18 living at home–many of them white Democrats.

The numbers are staggering. In the last six weeks, when both sides saturated the airwaves with television ads, more than 687,000 voters changed their minds and decided to oppose same-sex marriage. More than 500,000 of those, the data suggest, were parents with children under 18 living at home.  Because the proposition passed by 600,000 votes, this shift alone more than handed victory to proponents.

According to Fleischer, marriage equality proponents will have to “arm” parents against a similar propaganda attack when and if the question comes before voters again.  ”This analysis makes absolutely clear that supporters of same-sex marriage have a lot of work to do before we return to the ballot. But that work is already underway, and now real knowledge can underpin our efforts,” Fleischer writes.

A new Field Poll finds a slim majority of California voters support marriage rights for same-sex couples, and nearly 80 percent support some form of legal recognition.

According to the San Francisco Chronicle, the poll found 51 percent of respondents in favor of marriage equality, a two percentage point increase over a similar Field poll last year.

When civil unions are added to the mix, 44 percent support full marriage rights, while 34 percent say they prefer civil unions.  Just 19 percent reject any legal recognition of gay and lesbian couples.

The Chronicle reported:

Marc Solomon, the marriage director of Equality California, which works to secure legal protections for gay people, said that the poll results were “great news” because they showed an increase from last year’s Field Poll when 49 percent of voters approved of same-sex marriage. A Public Policy Institute of California survey released in March also showed a growing acceptance of same-sex marriage, with 50 percent of participants supporting same-sex marriage and 45 percent opposing it.

Still, Solomon acknowledged that the Field Poll showed a narrow margin and that Equality California needs to continue its outreach to voters before 2012, when supporters hope to get another initiative on the ballot.

“We’re certainly not resting on our laurels and we certainly have work to do,” Solomon said.

The following is a guest commentary by Sen. Roy Ashburn

Startled by the blurry reality of a red light glaring in my rear-view mirror at 2 am on the morning of March, 4, 2010, I knew my life was about to change.  The California Highway Patrol stopped me as I was driving drunk after leaving a gay club in Sacramento, California’s capital.   With my arrest and the media inquiry that followed, my deeply-held secret was no longer my own business.  My private life as a closeted gay man was now the public’s business, and I had a lot of explaining to do.

I should begin with an apology.  I am sincerely sorry for the votes I cast and the actions I took that harmed lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender people.  Just as important to me, I am sorry for not stepping forward and speaking up as an elected official on behalf of equal treatment for all people.  For nearly 26 years, the voters in my area of California trusted me as their elected representative.  I look back now knowing there is so much more I could have done to inform the public about LGBT  people and to fight for equal rights under the law.  Regrettably and selfishly, I took another path in my life and political career—I chose to conceal who I truly am and to then actually vote against the best interests of people like me.  All this was done because I was afraid–terrified, really–that somehow I would be revealed as gay.

My past actions harmed gay people.  In fact, all people are harmed when there is unequal treatment of anyone under the constitution and laws of our country.  I do not believe in discrimination, and yet my votes advanced unequal of treatment of gay people and promoted the suspicion and fear that limits people from being forthright and accepted in society.

Now, from what I have lived and learned, I want to do the best that I can to advance equality and freedom for all people.  Given the shame and confusion that many feel over their sexual orientation, perhaps my situation can serve as an example of both the harm that can come from denial and fear, and the opportunity to try to make things right.

Gay people being treated with respect and having the same opportunities for a good life regardless of sexual orientation should not be topics of political debate.  How can it possibly be that there is a partisan political divide over equal rights in America?  At a time when our country is deeply divided over the proper size and scope of government, when people are hurting in a bad economy and when we face real threats from terrorists determined to end our way of life, shouldn’t we be united on at least one principal–that equality for all Americans is fundamental to who we are as a nation of freedom-loving people? Continue reading »

It’s possible California voters will send up to six new openly gay and lesbian state legislators to Sacramento this year, but many of those candidates must first win crucial primaries this Tuesday, according to the Bay Area Reporter.

Currently five gays and lesbians serve in the California Assembly and Senate.  Four are part of the state’s LGBT Caucus, but newly-out Republican Sen. Roy Ashburn is not a member.

The five non-incumbent candidates with primary elections Tuesday are:

Toni Atkins, a former San Diego City Councilmember (and one-time acting mayor), who is unopposed in the Democratic primary.

Rich Gordon, a San Mateo County Supervisor, who is considered the frontrunner in his primary race for the District 21 Assembly seat.

Michael Wilson, a Vallejo City Councilmember running for the District 7 Assembly seat.  Wilson has the endorsement of the Santa Rosa Press Democrat.

Mitch Ward, Mayor of Manhattan Beach, who is running for the District 53 Assembly seat.  He faces two other Democrats Tuesday.

Ricardo Lara, a longtime political activist, who’s considered a frontrunner in the race for the District 50 Assembly seat.

Other Victory Fund-endorsed candidates with primaries Tuesday include: Assembly Speaker John Perez; Victoria Kolakowski, who could become the nation’s first openly transgender judge; Jill Ravitch, who’s running for Sonoma County District Attorney; Joaquin Rivera, a candidate for Alameda County School Board; Stephen Whitburn, who seeks a seat on the San Diego County Board of Supervisors; Bonnie Dumanis, the San Diego District Attorney seeking re-election; Linda Colfax, a candidate for San Francisco Superior Court Judge; and Kevin Beiser, a candidate for the San Diego School Board.

Learn more about California’s 20 LGBT candidates here.