FiveThirtyEight.com statistician Nate Silver – renowned for his incredibly accurate predictions in the 2008 elections – has crunched the numbers on Maine’s gay marriage ban and has decided that the anti-equality measure has about a “1-in-3″ chance of passing. We’ll spare you the number crunching and get straight to his prediction:
Time to play oddsmaker: I’d lay about 3 to 1 against the marriage ban passing. But it’s liable to fairly close — clearly a winnable campaign for conservatives and a losable one for liberals, especially if the sort of complacency sets in that we saw in California*.
* With that said, the model predicts that Prop 8 should have gotten 54 percent of the vote in California when it actually got 52 percent. So it’s not clear if the No on 8 campaign deserves quite the flak that it’s gotten.
The methodology used to reach this figure is incredibly convincing and deserves a read.