Rep. Tammy Baldwin, D-Wis., leads an unnamed Republican candidate by 5 percentage points in her race for the U.S. Senate, according to a new NBC News/Marist poll.  The survey of nearly 2,800 registered Wisconsin voters was conducted March 26th and 27th, National Journal reports.

Baldwin, who could become America’s first openly LGBT senator, will likely face one of four Republicans running in their party’s Senate primary.  Recent head-to-head polling found her beating three of them, and roughly tied with GOP front runner Tommy Thompson, a former Wisconsin governor who served four years as HHS secretary in the administration of George W. Bush.

The new poll numbers are particularly impressive given a recent push by a Washington-based conservative group to try to dampen enthusiasm for Baldwin.  The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, which represents corporate interests, spent more than $400,000 in February on negative advertising across Wisconsin targeting Baldwin.