Within the pages of the same publication, Log Cabin Republicans President Patrick Sammon has responded to former presidential candidate Gary Bauer’s column in Politico, stating that gay people getting married were not at the root of George W. Bush’s victory in the 2004 presidential election.

He writes:

Bauer argues that the issue of gay marriage helped catapult the GOP to electoral success in 2004 and directly led to President Bush’s reelection. But that theory, long rumored in the aftermath of the 2004 election, has been disproved.

Some analysts inaccurately credited Bush’s 2004 reelection to his use of the marriage issue to improve the turnout of his base. However, Matthew Dowd, Bush’s chief strategist in 2004, says the marriage issue was not the reason Bush won reelection. The New York Times quotes Dowd as saying, “At best, it doesn’t move voters, and at worst for Republicans, it moves them against them. Not so much on the issue, but it becomes, ‘Why are we having a discussion on this issue when we should be talking about things that matter, like the economy, or health care or the war?’”

Even so, Bauer’s argument doesn’t hold water, because 2008 is not 2004. The politics surrounding marriage are changing quickly.

In 2006, the five Republicans who used marriage most prominently as a wedge issue all lost. Sens. Rick Santorum (Pa.) and George Allen (Va.), Reps. John Hostetler (Ind.) and Anne Northup (Ky.), and Ken Blackwell (in his race for Ohio governor) tried to win with anti-gay campaign tactics. They didn’t necessarily lose because of their tactics, but these tactics didn’t prevent them from losing, as they might have a decade ago.

…

Interestingly enough, the two GOP U.S. senators targeted by Democrats, who should be in the most electoral danger given their constituency — Susan Collins of Maine and Gordon Smith of Oregon, are in the best position to win reelection in 2008. Not surprisingly, both Smith and Collins have strong records in favor of fairness and freedom for gay and lesbian Americans.